New President of Venezuela: Future Prospects and Challenges
After 25 years of Chavismo and 11 years of Nicolás Maduro’s administration, the continent’s eyes are on Venezuela. The future of the oil power, with the largest crude oil reserves in the world (which went from producing three million neighborhoods to less than one million in the last 10 years), the country of origin of one of the largest global exports in contemporary times, will have an impact not only on its territory and neighboring countries but, at least, on the entire continent.
The country has scheduled the presidential inauguration for January 10, 2025. Whoever takes the reins of the country from that day on will have to lead a country that, although it has experienced an economic improvement (with growth prospects of around 4% for this year), compared to previous years, still has more than half of the population living in poverty, according to the Living Conditions Survey (Encovi).
These conditions have partly driven out around eight million nationals who are living outside the country; the majority of them, around three million people, are in Colombia.
According to some experts, regardless of the election result, another peak in migration flow is expected, since even in a hypothetical scenario of the opposition’s rise, the six months of transition, internal negotiations, and complex reforms that would have to be promoted in the country could take years or years.
“We are going to have to wait six months, during which many things will happen in the Venezuelan context, and after those six months it will take a long time for us to see real changes in the situation in the country. This can also start to make people desperate because the economic situation is still dramatic,” Nastassja Rojas, a teacher and migration expert, told this newspaper.
She also finds it concerning that Colombia is not institutionally prepared for these scenarios. On the eve of elections, when Venezuela had not yet reported the closure of its borders, which were expected to be open for voting, Migración Colombia merely reported that it would take the necessary measures if there was an increase in the migratory flow, without specifying which ones.
The person who takes over after Sunday’s elections also inherits a complex reality regarding human rights. Just a few days ago, the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) and its Special Rapporteur for Freedom of Expression spoke out about political persecution and other issues that are raising alarm in the neighboring country, including attacks on opposition leaders, arbitrary detentions of activists, journalists, and members of dissident campaigns (such as Rocío San Miguel, who was arrested by Venezuelan authorities on February 9), closures of media and businesses, harassment of campaign committees and supporters (including business owners), as well as administrative disqualifications of candidates for elected office. This is in relation to what the Venezuelan president said about a possible civil war and eventual bloodshed if he loses the elections.
Human Rights Watch, in its World Report 2024, indicated that Venezuela has moved from a generalized repression of protesters in the streets to an apparently more selective repression, which includes surveillance, harassment, and criminalization. However, Nicolás Maduro’s government has continued to torture and murder opponents and dissidents. Meanwhile, at least until July 22, 2024, Foro Penal, a non-governmental organization, counts 305 political prisoners.
Another major problem that has been brewing in Venezuela is the presence of armed actors throughout the territory, as a result of the penetration of even illegal Colombian groups. As Ligia Bolívar, coordinator of Alerta Venezuela, pointed out at the presentation of the report “An ignored tragedy: the humanitarian and human rights impact of irregular armed groups in Venezuela,” “all the armed groups that operate no longer need to forcibly recruit young people because the shortages are so great that the young people think it is possible to obtain a better life in these organizations; that did not happen before in Venezuela.”
There, Bolívar highlighted the concern of “confirming, because there were suspicions, the paramilitary nature of the ELN’s activity in Venezuela. Having recorded ELN’s actions of’social cleansing’ in four states of the country is quite an alarming fact.” Finally, in addition to the “silence and lack of attention to this type of problem by the authorities of Venezuela and Colombia, as well as the Venezuelan opposition,” the researcher warned about the widespread perception that everything “would be chaos” regarding these illegal organizations “in the hypothetical assumption that the opposition won the presidential elections in 2024.” She concluded: “Some even spoke of this potentially leading to an armed conflict.”
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