There has been little certainty about what Edmundo González Urrutia’s specific plans are for Venezuela if he were to be elected president in these elections, perhaps because of how sudden his appearance in the electoral contest was. In general, it was difficult for the opposition to establish a specific government plan when, under the idea of presenting a single candidate, it was not known which name would appear on the ballot amid the obstacles of the ruling party to the candidacies of María Corina Machado and Corina Yoris. However, it is possible to imagine some of the scenarios, or challenges, that González would face upon assuming office.
The political panorama
It is clear that the opposition’s political influence is out of González’s hands. The divisions and disagreements of the past have taken a backseat within the opposition Democratic Unitary Platform, even more so when trying to surround María Corina Machado on the way to the elections. Although she was not the candidate, González Urrutia has already assured her that she will get the position she decides on.
The biggest challenge would be the transition between governments, as six months will have to pass before the eventual inauguration of the new president in January 2025. For this reason, the disposition of Nicolás Maduro and Chavismo in general will be decisive. The National Assembly, the Supreme Court, and the National Electoral Council, to mention some of the country’s governing institutions, are aligned with the current head of the executive, so governing would be a challenge. Faced with this, the attitude that González has anticipated is one of negotiation. “We are committed to promoting a political dynamic of agreements that strengthen our democratic culture,” said the candidate in a document outlining the principles of his campaign.
The economic outlook
Without a doubt, one of the country’s biggest problems is the economy. Sanctions on Venezuelan oil, a product that has been a fundamental source of income for the country since the last century, were a central part of the rapprochement between Washington and Caracas during Joe Biden’s administration. In this regard, Ana Lara, an analyst and professor at the Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, said that Venezuela’s oil reserves continue to be of definitive importance for the region.
“The fact that the United States is sitting down again with the Maduro regime is probably due to the need for oil. (…) In our hemisphere, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves. Maduro remains a relevant piece on the international chessboard, and the United States must remain attentive to this situation,” she said. The professor notes that, according to ECLAC reports on Venezuela, crude oil exploitation has begun to increase at the same time that inflation has begun to slow down. María Corina Machado’s positive relations in the international arena, especially with the United States, could be key in an eventual scenario of aid to boost the oil industry and, therefore, the economy in a González government.
Humanitarian situation and migration
Many of the seven million citizens who left the country did so because of the economic crisis. “Oil production drives activity in other sectors in Venezuela, which will generate a little more employment,” explains Lara. However, instability is not limited to the economy. Repression and detention of political prisoners have been increasing. According to the NGO Foro Penal, there will be at least 269 people imprisoned for political reasons in 2024. Candidate González has said in the document with his campaign principles that there is a systematic violation of human rights in Venezuela. “The reports of the United Nations Independent International Fact-Finding Mission describe the systematic violation of human rights that we have suffered for years. These events have opened deep wounds in our country. We are committed to promoting mechanisms that allow us to heal and advance with respect towards justice and peace,” he promised.
Relationship with Colombia
Contrary to what happened during the government of Iván Duque, when diplomatic relations were broken, since the arrival of Gustavo Petro, the attitude towards Venezuela, both with the regime and the opposition, has been one of dialogue. Colombia was a guarantor of the Barbados Agreement, which sought to lay the foundations for elections. Likewise, Bogotá organized meetings for democracy in Venezuela, and Petro, together with Lula da Silva, president of Brazil, even spoke of a plebiscite that would guarantee political peace, an idea that did not prosper. “Regardless of the political model of government, Colombia has the responsibility to maintain relations with Venezuela, and this is difficult to say, but it is a reality,” summarizes Ronal Rodríguez, spokesperson for the Observatory on Venezuela of the University of Rosario. There remains doubt about Petro’s peace plans since the Maduro regime is a guarantor and has hosted dialogue tables with the ELN and the announcement with the Second Marquetalia in Caracas.
Relations with the United States and other powers
Nicolás Maduro is largely responsible for Venezuela’s current geopolitical positioning, as his time as foreign minister dates back to his rapprochement with powers not aligned with the United States, such as Russia, Iran, and China, ties that remain. What González will have to deal with will surely also be related to the position that these powers take in the event of an opposition victory. In other words, whether or not they recognize the result and his possible election. He also has experience in international relations, as he was ambassador to Algeria and Argentina, in addition to being involved in Venezuela’s incorporation into Mercosur.
Compared to the United States, this country has the advantage of being one of the countries most interested in elections, with guarantees for the opposition. The recent talks between Washington and Caracas are also on the table, so the foundations are laid for an eventual reestablishment of diplomatic relations.
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