Kamala Harris has chosen her vice presidential running mate, and we need a history lesson to fully understand her decision.
Sixteen years ago, in June 2008, to be more precise, most Washington analysts were asking the same question: What does Joe Biden have that would make Barack Obama choose him as his vice presidential running mate? In his search for a running mate, which lasted almost two months, Obama analyzed the resumes of at least 20 people, and two or three names seemed to be much better than Biden’s, at least on paper.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton brought Obama national and international recognition, as well as a network of political and diplomatic contacts that the other options on the table could never match. But Obama and Clinton did not get along, and the possibility that she would overshadow him on stage ruled her out almost immediately.
Evan Bayh, then a senator from Indiana (a key state that Obama ended up winning), had a greater ability to attract moderate and Republican voters because he came from a Midwestern state. Meanwhile, Tim Kaine, who ended up being Clinton’s running mate in 2016, was the governor of another key state (Virginia, which Obama also ended up winning) and could connect with Rust Belt voters who would be decisive in the race.
The latter’s emphasis on education and social justice aligned with Obama’s progressive line, which is why Clinton ended up choosing him eight years later. But in the end, neither had the unique blend that Biden provided for Obama.
Biden not only provided Obama with a deep understanding of the Senate and significant foreign policy experience, an area where the former president was weak, but he also had a number of key elements for him at other levels that none of the other candidates had. Specifically, there were four reasons: Obama trusted him; Biden was not going to present a challenge to his leadership; he had charisma; and, most importantly, they had chemistry.
These same elements now allow us to answer our initial question: why did Kamala Harris choose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate? Like Obama, Harris had a large number of options on the table. Some were more striking to observers than Walz, who, for many analysts, ended up being a surprise choice.
Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro were two of the names leading the race to find a suitable ticket for Harris. Both offer several of the components she was looking for: a white man in a crucial state. Then there was Kentucky Governor Andy Beshar, who is the Democrat with the highest popularity rating in the country.
Both Kelly and Shapiro offered support in a state where Democrats need to win the election. Minnesota, where Walz comes from, is also a swing state, but not as swing as Arizona or Pennsylvania. Also, journalist Steve Kornacki notes that Walz has not gained ground for Democrats in Minnesota.
“When Obama won his two elections, he built on strong metropolitan support with respectable (and sometimes better) showings among small-town and blue-collar voters. In his 2022 campaign, Walz did not restore that old balance. His coalition, on the other hand, resembled the one that became the standard for Democrats after Obama. He achieved wide margins in metropolitan areas and was beaten virtually everywhere else,” Kornacki said.
In other words, if Walz was elected for anything, it was not for the electoral machinery with which he managed to return power to the Democrats in his state, because that machinery was non-existent. Shapiro, on the other hand, did enjoy enormous popularity in Pennsylvania. However, his positions on the war in Gaza and the defense of Israel meant that he was not considered in the end, fearing that it would be a very risky choice for voters concerned about the Palestinian cause.
“Harris needs to win Pennsylvania more than any other state, and she chose not to pick the most popular Democrat in that state because she is afraid of offending campus protesters who support Hamas. That is a wonderful lesson in strength. Even with her own political survival at stake, she was unable to take on the most extremist wing of the Democratic Party,” said Brad Todd, a Republican campaign strategist for USA Today.
On the other hand, Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman reportedly told Harris’ campaign that Shapiro was too focused on his own personal ambition, according to Politico. This scored points for Walz’s campaign, which promised not to upset the Democratic base and divide it down the road. Shapiro, 51, is a young hopeful in the Democratic Party, so his ambition to run for president on his own down the road could mark a more complex political relationship with Harris.
“Obama’s choice of Biden in some ways mirrors Bush’s choice of Dick Cheney as his running mate in 2000; at his age, Biden seems unlikely to be fit to run for president if Obama wins and serves two terms,” The New York Times noted in 2008, making clear that Biden was offering Obama a more relaxed relationship without displaying political ambition to run for the White House. Remember, Biden’s aspirations came four years after Obama left office, and with the president’s blessing.
Although Shapiro and company had better results in the Electoral College, William Howell, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, reminds us that “there are more considerations than just electoral ones.” Walz offers confidence, reassurance, and chemistry to Harris, who has felt good interacting with him, according to local press reports. He also presents what consolidated Biden as a figure of weight for Obama: charisma.
Walz worked in agriculture and manufacturing and never attended an elite college—tthe first person since Jimmy Carter not to attend an Ivy League school. He has also been a professor and is supported by unions. He is also a military veteran, having served in the National Guard across the country. His record as a congressman is all about pro-gun positions, so it will be difficult for the far right and radical left to attack him.
And the governor also has a charming personality with the public—something that Donald Trump’s formula does not have—who remember him for his role as a football coach and his work with children. It was these kinds of details that made the United States identify Biden as “Uncle Joe.” Now, Walz has been christened “Papa Walz.”
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