The presidential elections next Tuesday, November 5, 2024, will pit Democrat Kamala Harris against Republican Donald Trump at the polls. With the elections approaching, a large number of polls have been conducted, both national and local, which show similar results, in which the vice president remains in the lead, however, the average is still close and separates the candidates by less than three percentage points.
The latest poll of voting intentions, conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies between September 25 and 26, showed that Harris leads Trump by 3% of preference at the national level, one point more than in the poll published two weeks ago by the same firm. The vice president obtained 44%, while the former president was left with 44%.
Harris vs. Trump: Results of the latest polls
Asked who is more likely to win the presidential election between Harris and Trump, 45% of respondents say they think the Democrat will have a better chance, compared to 36% who think the Republican candidate will. Eleven percent think the race will be a tie.
As for the issues most likely to determine how they will vote in the presidential election, respondents indicated that they are: the economy (60%), abortion (37%) and immigration (34%). The first topic is the most chosen by likely voters of Trump (72%) and Harris (56%).
Other important issues for those who support the former president are immigration (57%), health care (23%) and abortion (23%). While 55% of the likely voters of the current vice president choose abortion, 40% health care and 23% housing.
As for the FiveThirtyEight update, which shows the average of each candidate in terms of national polls, the September 30 poll shows that the Democrat leads the former president by 2.8 points, with 48.4% of the preference, against 45.7% of the businessman. In this compilation of data, the vice president has remained ahead for the last month.
How the Electoral College Works in the US: The Importance of Key States
Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for The New York Times, notes that new Times/Siena polls, conducted after the debate in the key states of Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as Ohio and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, show the upcoming election will be very close.
He explains that in a hypothetical case where their results were correct, Harris would have 270 in the Electoral College and Trump 268. “In terms of the electoral count, it would be the closest modern American presidential election,” he said.
In the general election, citizens of each state vote, once registered, for the ticket and party of their choice, but while other public offices (such as senators and representatives) can be won based on the popular vote, in the case of the election for president and vice president, the Electoral College is the one that determines who is the winner of the contest.
Voters elect the Electoral College, a body made up of a total of 538 electors from all states, including Washington, D.C. To win the election, a majority of more than 270 electoral votes is required. After the votes are counted in Congress on January 6, 2025, the winning candidate will finally assume office as president of the United States on January 20.
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