The best feats ever told have landed in the 2021-22 academic year of the sport. The Real Madrid’s 14th European Cup built between comebacks and impossiblethe Rafa Nadal’s Grand Slams overcoming his foot problems and infiltrations that scare or the NBA champion ring to the team who changed basketball history, the Golden State Warriors. Champions for history, who have a common denominator: disobedience to the data that said that winning this year was not going to be with them.
Professional sport, by definition, is unpredictable despite the fact that there are favorite theoreticians and at the top level surprises are limited. With the growing technological development, data and its analysis gain a fundamental role, which is applied to sport and its predictions. Taking variables, such as rivals, quality of the teams or the percentages that are handled in each match or tournament, a conclusion is reached. in which the final result is predicted.
One of the best known is ‘FiveThirtyEight’. It uses an Elo rating system, like that of chess, which through a statistical calculation marks the ability of athletes, teams… In practice, a percentage is established taking into account status, head-to-head performance, margins of victory and quality of rivals.
In 2022, the sport showed how it still contradicts statistics, and that emotional, environmental or dynamic factors that have to do with teams they also have a fundamental role in the analysis. Madrid, the Warriors or Nadal are the best examples.
The 4%-96% raised by Rafa Nadal
The most spectacular Nadal was the one who first showed that sport should not be predicted. In an Australian Open marked by uncertainty with his physique after the break at the end of 2021 and the absence of Novak Djokovic, he appeared in the final against Daniel Medvedev. He could not have started worse, and the Russian was placed with 2-6 and 6-7, in addition to having break ball.
The ‘Win-Predictor’ of the Melbourne tournament gave 96% to the Russian, 4% to the Spanish. A system based on the form of a tennis player, the entity of its rivals, the surface or the percentage of points won to the service that Game Insight Group puts into practice. On that occasion, they underestimated the strength, especially mental, of Nadal.
The rest is history, as they say. And Nadal lifted the match and his 21st Grand Slam in an incredible way (6-4, 6-4 and 7-5). The Spaniard knocked down a player who had never lost five sets, winning the first two on hard court, and after falling in points from the bottom, one of the keys. The data gave Medvedev the clear favourite, but Nadal’s competitiveness changed the story.
The Champions of the Impossible
As happened with Nadal, months later the sport would give another song to the impossible. That of one of its faithful defenders: Real Madrid. The Whites were proclaimed champions of the UEFA Champions League for the 14th time after completing an impossible path. Go back to Paris-Saint Germain in 17 minutes after being overtaken by Mbappé for a match and a half. Getting react against Chelsea, defending champion, who knocked out the whites well into extra time. Or the most difficult yet: two goals against Manchester City with a minute of play and extension ahead.
Before the ‘sky blue’ team, the Madrid reached the 87th minute of the game with a 1% chance of passing. Mahrez had scored, the chances did not come and to make matters worse Mendy had just taken a chance from Jack Grealish under the sticks. A goal out of nowhere and the drive of the team changed the story.
And months later they touched the sky in Paris. A ceiling that, for FiveThirtyEight, was a long way off in August. They only gave them a 6% title options at the dawn of the Champions League. Manchester City had 16% and Liverpool 9%, for example. The well-known American page has a very complex system to give odds based on the strength of the leagues, how each team behaves on the field in each game and against its rivals. Those from Madrid were favorites before each round: PSG (43%), Chelsea (47%), Manchester City (61%) and Liverpool (65%).
The Warriors, from 0% to the ring
almost like the Real Madrid, but ‘more beast’ is still what happened with the Golden State Warriors. In the month of October those from Bahia reached the season after two courses ‘in the desert’. Injuries and his golden generation mired in defeat. Curry, with 33 for 34 years. ‘FiveThirtyEight’ gave them a 0.01% chance of winning the ring before the first week of competition. Others, like the defending champion Bucks, had more than 23%.
The season progressed and the Warriors winning games with a squad from less to more. In December it reached 5%, it fell to 4% in February, but with its classification for the Playoffs with court factor to start grew to 9%. They beat the Nuggets and Grizzlies and advanced to the conference finals. Before that round, they were only given an 18% chance. The Celtics, who had to face the Heat, had 76%.
The two teams advanced and met in the final. Boston ‘stole’ home field factor from the Bay and won the first from the Garden… The advanced statistics gave them a clear victory. 88% to 12% from Golden State. Three wins in a row and a comeback based on defense, Stephen Curry and the ‘x factor’ of Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins changed the story. Until the last day, Well, ‘Game 6’ seemed favorable to Boston… With a 74% probability!
Are they inaccurate analyses?
There are three cases of impossible, according to the data, that became possible. The doubt is then centered on the validity of the analyses. If they focus on global contexts, projections and skills how can it be that Madrid, Nadal or the Warriors can turn it around. The reality is that there are non-numerical values, such as Nadal’s mentality, the Bernabéu effect or the Warriors’ style, that cannot be measured and that they have decided not to appreciate. An error, or not so much, because that must be quantified and it is really complicated.
The different analyzes continue to grow and refine themselves to generate models that manage to predict the sport more. 2022 proves not yet. The machines continue without beating legendary stories that the sport brings. And the Warriors, Nadal or Madrid are their faithful defenders.
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