Economists rule out that the Government will re-implement restrictions as harsh as those applied in the first and second waves of Covid-19, since it “learned” from the strong economic impact it caused in Argentina. However, they acknowledge that there are sectors that are at greater risk if new constraints are implemented.
Sebastin Menescaldi, associate director of Eco Go; Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis of Equilibra; Y Joel lupieri, an economist at EPyCA Consultores, analyzed in dialogue with The chronicler if the economy could withstand new restrictions, What are the activities that could be most affected and what fiscal space can the Government have to face possible closures.
According to Menescaldi, there are three types of activities: the “severely affected due to the coronavirus (Hotels and Restaurants, everything related to recreation, Transportation, Construction), intermediate affected (Industry and Commerce, among others) and others that are not affected (Agro and Fishing, for example) “.
“The first time was very very special: they closed places, nobody could go out, it was all crazy,” stressed the economist, while noting that in the second wave the economic impact was much less.
“The second time, the economic agents were adapting, they created the delivery, we realized that we can keep the premises open with precautions. In the second wave there was an economic effect, but it was not very high and it was quite concentrated. “
According to your forecast, forward the new wave will affect essentially the same sectors: leisure, tourism and transport, as “Those are the three most complicated in general.” However, the associate director of Eco Go is confident that this time everything will be much lighter.
adaptation to closures
“I don’t foresee big changes; It could slow down their recovery this year a bit, but I don’t see a big economic effect. People are already quite adapted – from e-commerce to how to operate today – and I don’t think there will be any new very deep closures. The Government also learned and knows that this does not serve them“, acot.
With a vision similar to that of his peer, Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina agreed that he learned from the 2020 experience, where “The confinements were very harsh and had a very negative impact on our country for the economy.”
“Today we have many infections but few serious cases. This means that the health system is not saturated yet, although obviously the number of cases puts pressure on tests, guards, etc. Likewise, I think the issue of restrictions will drop by drop“, he slipped, and stressed:” In fact, since the second wave in the middle of last year was with much less restrictions, so I do not think there is a very significant impact out there. “
Obviously the sectors that are always most affected are recreational services, mass events, recitals, that they are trying to work with protocols, health countries, the specialist also mentioned.
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Regarding the fiscal margin that the Government can have, the economist thinks that it must be put in a context with the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
impact on collection
“Be supposed to There will not be much fiscal margin to allocate to this type of actions, even though if the activity suffers obviously the collection can have some negative impact -seal-. But it seems to me that Covid spending has been falling from what was 2020 and 2021; Y As long as there is no catastrophe, it should continue to reduce this type of spending in 2022. “
In turn, Joel Lupieri emphasized that the economy is in a clear recovery, at least trying to achieve a dynamism similar to the pre-pandemic. Plan that, in these moments of high demand for mobility and internal tourism, imposing new restrictions could mean a blow to SMEs “who depend on these months to direct their finances for the rest of the year.”
And he asserted: “Many sectors, especially linked to Tourism and Gastronomy, point to the high seasons’ to make an economic difference that later allows them to smooth out seasonality. Closing, restricting, prohibiting, in any of these orders will put the economy back on standby, awakening fears and social unrest “.
In the same way, By limiting consumption, the country’s main growth engine will be paralyzed. “In times of debt renegotiation, moving away from the path of trust that should be followed to seduce international creditors could be an irreversible mistake, “he warned.
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fiscal margin and the possibility of ife
Finally, the economist from EPyCA Consultores stressed that new closings will limit the government’s fiscal margin: “Less activity implies less tax collection, putting pressure on the fiscal deficit already present.”
Likewise, and as a non-minor data, he warned that If the closings are prolonged, we could see the IFE plans re-floated, which will also have an impact on public spending. “With everything, we would be facing a scissors effect ‘on the deficit: less money enters and more is spent “, finished