On the eve of her trip to Beijing in the company of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, wanted this Thursday to lay the foundations on How to deal with the relationship between the Twenty-seven and the Asian giant. In the cold war between the US and Beijing, the European Union is trying to find its own way, in an environment that is more complex than ever, compounded by the role that China can play as a possible mediator in the war in Ukraine.
The analysis of the president of the European Commission is clear: China’s opening stage has ended and the Asian giant is not content with a secondary role on the international scene but rather has a mission. According to von der Leyen, Beijing pursues a “systemic change in the international order with China at the center.” “We have seen that China’s position in multilateral bodies shows China’s determination to promote an alternative vision of the world order,” von der Leyen added.
The last few years have been marked by a loss of European naivety regarding China which is no longer a giant bazaar of cheap products but a thriving player in strategic sectors for the 21st century economy such as 5G networks, robotics, artificial intelligence and electric cars (the latter thanks to the dominance of raw materials such as lithium and cobalt); that it has skyrocketed its defense spending and that it is spreading its tentacles with investments in Latin America, Africa and the Balkan countries. China is an opportunity and a threat at the same time (it is the EU’s largest trading partner in goods) and European capitals are divided on how to meet this challenge.
Faced with these disturbing prophecies, Von der Leyen acknowledges that the EU cannot end its relationship with China and that it must try to balance it through a system to control that European investments and their experts do not end up strengthening the military and intelligence capabilities of “systemic rivals” such as Beijing. What worries the European Commission the most is precisely this alliance between the economy and military use. That is why Brussels wants to develop an instrument for the control of European investments abroad in particularly sensitive areas and will make a proposal later this year. The European formula does not seem easy. It’s about keeping a delicate balance between cooperation and showing your teeth. “I think that it is not feasible – nor is it in Europe’s interest – to dissociate from China. Our relations are not black or white and our response cannot be,” Von der Leyen explained in a 40-minute speech organized by two European think tanks, the European Policy Center and the Mercator Institute for Policy Studies. China (MERICS), the latter sanctioned by China. “We must focus on lower risk, not on disengagement”. It is not surprising that the president of the European Commission issues this message just when she is preparing to travel with Macron to China, since France is the European country that has shown the greatest interest in developing European strategic sovereignty, not only in areas such as the military but in supply chains, raw materials and investments by other powers in especially sensitive sectors.
Looking at recent events, German policy has criticized the “unlimited friendship” between China and Vladimir Putin’s Russia exemplified in the summit between the two leaders, although for German politics “it is clear from the visit that China sees Putin’s weakness as a way to increase its influence over Russia. And it is clear that the balance of power in that relationship – which for most of the last century favored Russia – has now been reversed.” That’s why, China’s role in the war in Ukraine will be a “determining factor” in defining the relationship between the EU and the Asian giant.”. The limits of the negotiation are clear for Brussels: “any peace plan that consolidates the Russian annexations is simply not a viable plan. We have to be frank on this point.”
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