“Theresa May had to resign six months after the motion because she did not control the party”

LA RAZÓN talks with Kevin Hickson, professor at the Department of Politics at the University of Liverpool, about the future of the Conservative Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, after submitting to a motion of censure from his own party over “Partygate”.

What are the chances that Boris Johnson will survive as prime minister even if he wins the vote of no confidence? Theresa May was ousted five months after winning a vote of no confidence…

I think Johnson is likely to survive the no-confidence vote, but the fact that the vote is taking place is damaging in itself, as it shows that several MPs have been willing to sign letters of no-confidence against the Prime Minister. So he is damaged even if he survives as Theresa May did and in my opinion it is unlikely that he will go to the next general election as the Tory leader.

Who are the main candidates to replace Boris Johnson?

The obvious leaders of a few months ago have since lost support, particularly Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak. Discreetly, Defense Minister Ben Wallace, who is highly regarded within the party and considered competent, steps up.

What are the main mistakes made by the prime minister in his mandate?

Boris Johnson has achieved significant successes such as: achieving a landslide victory in the last general election of 2019, in which he won seats for the Conservative Party that they had not previously won, completing Brexit and decisively moving Conservative politics away from the free market ideas that have dominated education since the days of Margaret Thatcher. The duration of this last turn depends on who is the new leader. His mistakes are also well known: his management of Downing Street, general incompetence and partying during covid lockdowns.

Can you explain why this vote is so common in the UK and what can happen beyond the numbers?

A no-confidence procedure is well established and the Conservatives have tended to dump leaders once they become unpopular. Under party rules, a leader who wins a confidence vote is safe from that challenge for 12 months. If the rebels get 133 votes, Johnson will have done as poorly on the ballot as Theresa May did in 2018. Theresa May was forced to resign about six months after the no-confidence motion because she felt she had lost control of the party. .