The United States has entered November 6, which is the fourth day of the general election. However, who is the new president is still up in the air.
Many netizens said that they do not know whether the 74-year-old Trump and the soon-to-78-year-old Biden as the parties are more tortured, or the global “melon-eaters” who are waiting for the result are more tortured.
What is the current state of the US general election?
Concern 1: What is the situation facing Trump and Biden?
Based on the export data of many US media, the lead of the Democratic presidential candidate Biden is obvious-he has won 253 electoral votes (some media added Arizona electoral votes, totaling 264) It can be said that it is only one step away from winning the election.
Biden himself is quite confident. On November 5, Biden stated that he and his running partner Harris believed that there was “no doubt” that they would be “declared as winners” after the counting of votes. He also called on supporters to “keep calm, the whole process is underway… we will know the result soon.”
The situation facing Trump is relatively difficult. He has won only 214 electoral votes. Although he is in the lead in the key swing states of Pennsylvania and North Carolina, his lead is shrinking as the mailed votes continue to flood in.
In order to change the backwardness and decline, Trump’s campaign team began to launch legal challenges in many states, requiring that the counting of votes be stopped or recounted. However, Georgia and Michigan have rejected their lawsuits to stop the counting of votes. The Trump team is also expected to launch legal challenges in Pennsylvania and Nevada, with no results yet.
Concern 2: How big is the difference in votes between the two key states?
The result of the general election was “difficult to give birth” mainly because the election results in six states were difficult to determine: Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Alaska.
Except for Alaska (3 electoral votes, Trump’s advantage) is because the vote count rate is too low and the results cannot be announced temporarily, the other five key states are mainly because the difference between the two votes is very small-as the vote counts Continue, the result may be reversed at any time. So, in these five states, how big is the difference in votes between Trump and Biden?
Nevada (6 electoral votes): Nevada has counted 89% of the votes, of which Biden has 49.4%, Trump 48.5%, and Biden leads. But judging from the number of votes, Biden has only 11,000 more votes than Trump.
Arizona (11 electoral votes): Some media such as Fox News and The Associated Press have announced that Biden has won Arizona, but most other media have not yet released this news. According to “New York Times” statistics, Arizona has now counted 90% of the votes, of which Biden has 50.1% of the votes, Trump 48.5%, and Biden is leading. In terms of votes, Biden has 46,000 more votes than Trump.
Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes): Pennsylvania has counted 94% of the votes, of which Trump has 49.7% of the votes, Biden 49.0%, and Trump leads by about 49,000 votes.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes): North Carolina has counted 95% of the votes, of which Trump has 50% of the votes, Biden is 48.6%, and Trump leads by about 76,000 votes.
Georgia (16 electoral votes): Georgia has counted more than 98% of the votes, of which Trump has 49.4%, Biden has 49.4%, and Biden leads by less than 1,000 votes.
Concern 3: What kind of results may appear?
In fact, the statistical results of most American media have stayed at 253:214 for a long time. At this time, some U.S. media began to “perform and combine” to calculate the paths for Trump and Biden to win 270 electoral votes first.
According to the “New York Times” report, Biden has three relatively clear and highly likely winning paths:
Win Pennsylvania (20 votes). As long as he wins Pennsylvania, Biden’s victory will basically be a foregone conclusion. At present, although Trump is leading in Pennsylvania, the gap between the two is narrowing, and mailed votes that are more conducive to the Democratic Party are still pouring in.
Won the current leaders Arizona (11 votes) and Nevada (6 votes). In these two states, Biden maintained a leading edge, especially Arizona. By winning these two states, Biden’s electoral votes will reach exactly 270 votes.
Won Nevada (6 votes) and Georgia (16 votes). At present, the difference between Biden and Trump in Georgia is less than 2,000 votes. US media believe that Biden is likely to “turn blue” the state.
For Trump, based on the current situation, his path to win re-election is relatively narrow. First of all, he must not lose Pennsylvania. Once the state is lost, he basically has no chance of winning.
Therefore, the most likely path to victory for Trump is: Pennsylvania (20 votes) + North Carolina (15 votes) + Georgia (16 votes) + Arizona (11 votes)/Nevada (6 votes).
Concern 4: When will the final result be known?
For the American people who are used to knowing the results on election night, this year’s election looks quite different. What everyone cares most at present is: when will the result be known?
According to Fox News, in fact, the results on election night are only preliminary results announced by some media organizations-because they have enough voting information to make this judgment. However, the final result of the general election will not be officially determined until each state first announces the official result of the state, and then the electoral college casts the electoral votes.
Among them, the time for each state to confirm the result of the state’s vote count varies. For example, Delaware must announce the results within two days after the end of the election day; but New York and California must announce their official results more than a month later, on December 7 and December 11, respectively.
On December 14, electors from each state held a rally and cast their electoral votes. On January 6 next year, the new Congress will hold a joint meeting of the two houses to count the electoral votes cast by the states, and candidates who have obtained more than 270 electoral votes will be elected president.
This also means that the official election results will not be announced until January 6 next year. So, when will the results of the US media statistics be released?
It depends on the counting process of the five key swing states.
According to CNN, as of the evening of the 5th, there are still about 190,000 votes in Nevada that have not been counted. The state stipulates that as long as the postmark shows that it was sent before November 3, they will count all mailed ballots received before November 10.
In Pennsylvania, there are still about 250,000 votes that have not been counted. Among them, Philadelphia has about 72,000 mailed votes not counted. The state will count all ballots sent before the election and received before 17:00 on November 6, which is being challenged by the Trump campaign.
In North Carolina, the new vote count will not be announced until next week. The state stipulates that as long as the postmark shows that it was sent before November 3, they will count all mailed votes received before 17:00 on November 12.
In Georgia, there are more than 16,000 votes not counted. In Arizona, there are still about 285,000 votes not counted. It is expected that the result will be more clear on the evening of the 6th Eastern Time.