Sweden risks joining NATO to avoid another government crisis

The countenance of the “premier” of Swedenthe social democrat Magdalena Anderson, and his ministers while waiting from their seats this Tuesday for the result of the motion of confidence against the head of Justice and the Interior could not be more gloomy. They were aware that the fall of morgan johansson would force the government to resign and trigger a political crisis three months before the elections and in full NATO accession negotiations.

However, Andersson and his minority government were able to breathe a sigh of relief, although it was for one vote. 174 deputies voted in favor of overthrowing the minister (one less than the 175 needed), 97 voted against, 70 abstained and eight were absent from the Riksdag (Parliament) session. The decisive vote that avoided the third political crisis in just one year it was the day of independence Amineh Kakabavehwhich until hours before kept the country in suspense.

After the vote, this Kurdish parliamentarian who fled at the age of 19 from his native Iran to take refuge in Sweden, he got up to embrace the other protagonist of the crisis, Johansson, who was condemned by the center-right opposition for his ineffective fight against organized crime. “There has been a lot of pressure on him and me and now it’s over,” Kakabaveh said. “Morgan Johansson has done an extremely good job when it comes to ‘honor killings,’ as I said in the chamber just before the vote. Sometimes we should also praise each other,” she added.

At the subsequent press conference, the prime minister welcomed the failure of the confidence motion against her minister because “Sweden is in a vulnerable position and needs a strong government. Therefore, it is good that the Minister of Justice can continue the work of him”.

Andersson charged again against the irresponsibility of the opposition, which he accused of abusing the instrument of reprobation, which undermines the capacity of the Government’s action. “Should a no-confidence motion be used to replace an education minister because the school has not received enough budget resources? Or should an infrastructure minister be fired because the opposition wants new investment in roads?” he wondered.

To questions from the journalists, the Social Democratic leader recognized what everyone fears, that the pact with the independent deputy could put more spokes in the wheels of the already difficult negotiations with Turkey to lift his veto on the accession of Sweden and neighboring Finland to NATO. “There is no doubt that the turbulence of the last few days could affect the image of Sweden, particularly in this delicate situation,” Andersson stated.

Precisely, the decision to maintain the agreement signed in November with Kakabaveh to guarantee the investiture of the Prime Minister means that the Government is committed to strengthen support for the People’s Protection Units (YPG)the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) against one of the demands that Ankara demands to give its approval to Stockholm’s entry into the Atlantic Alliance.

“The YPG political party has a crucial role in the regional administration and represents a legitimate negotiating partner,” reads the agreement, which is signed by Tobias Baudin, secretary of the Social Democratic Party (SAP). “That freedom fighters who have fought or sympathize with YPG/YPJ or PYD are classified by actors from certain countries as terrorists is unacceptable,” he added in a clear reference to the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoganwhich has been accusing Sweden of being “a haven for terrorists” kurdish

In the event that the SAP remains faithful to the agreement with the deputy, Maria Lemne, professor of politics at the University of Södertorn, warns the newspaper “Dagens Nyheter”, “then we can definitely say goodbye to the NATO negotiations”.

Just as pessimistic Halil Karavelli, Turkey expert at the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm. “This is the end of Sweden’s NATO membership application. In my view, this shows that the Swedish government has no intention of meeting Turkey’s demands.” “The relationship between the US and Turkey is not very good, and Turkey really has nothing to gain from Sweden’s entry into NATO,” he says in statements to the daily “Svenska Dagbladet”.

Other experts, on the other hand, believe that this pact only commits the Social Democrats until the elections of September 11, in which Kakabaveh, who was elected in 2018 on the Left Party lists but broke with the group a year later, will no longer be a candidate.

Of the same opinion is Nicholas Aylott, an associate professor of politics at Södertorn, who believes that “the government must have decided that Turkey will not give in, at least until after the elections.” “Perhaps the price Turkey is demanding is so high that termination of the government’s agreement with Kakabaveh would not satisfy the terms in any case,” Aylott continues.

In the opinion of Jan Hallenbergresearch leader at the Foreign Policy Institute, Turkey is more concerned receive modern American fighter aircraft than Swedish domestic political disputes. “The United States has signaled that Sweden and Finland are important to have with NATO, especially by allowing its second largest ship and its tallest general visit Stockholm. I think it will happen, but whether it will be at the big NATO meeting in Madrid at the end of this month or even later cannot be decided,” Hallengren explains to SVT public television.

Organized crime, the trump card of the opposition

For now, while waiting for a reaction from Turkey, the opposition focuses its attention on the domestic consequences of the failure of the motion of censure presented by the far-right Swedish Democrats (SD), the third force in Parliament, and which was joined by conservatives, Christian Democrats and liberals. “There are still voices that argue that it would be irresponsible to overthrow Morgan Johansson, that it is not the right time,” he lamented. henry vinge, parliamentary leader of SD. “But every day Morgan Johansson remains as Justice Minister is a day lost in the fight against crime. Nothing could be more irresponsible than letting that continue,” Vinge warned.

In the opinion of the leader of the opposition, Ulf Kristersson, “Morgan Johansson’s eight years have been a catastrophe when it comes to fighting serious crime.” “He’s not doing his job. He should resign ”, ditch.

The Social Democrats, for their part, criticize Kristersson for following the extreme right once again, as he did last June supporting the motion of censure against the then prime minister, Stefan Lofven. “I do not think that [los suecos] be so impressed by this kind of chaotic behavior”, opined the finance minister, Michael Damberg, before the vote. “This also shows the weakness of the opposition leader. It seems that he is not the one directing all this, but [el líder demócrata de Suecia] Jimmie Akesson. At best, the leader of the Moderate Party is playing third fiddle in this show,” he added. Less than a hundred days before the appointment with the polls, the Swedish parties have given the trigger to a long pre-election campaign.