the russian president Vladimir Putin has a “martyr complex” and the latest NATO moves have caused him to be “out of control”, so there is a high risk that he will order the use of nuclear and chemical weapons. These are some of the conclusions reached by the Heritage Foundation American, which has shown its concern that “hysterical rhetoric” of the Kremlin lead the Russian leader to “make one of the most fateful decisions of the century” in the face of his faltering invasion of Ukraine.
These are some of the conclusions of the foundation, which has produced a report entitled “The United States and its allies must understand and respond to Russia’s nuclear threats”, in which it explores the real probability that Putin will resort to the use of weapons of mass destruction.
The Heritage Foundation is an institution created in Washington in 1973 who played a fundamental role during the presidency of ronald reaganand that has a fundamental role in the interventionist policies of USA abroad.
The authors of the study define the current situation in Russia as “a state close to hysteria” based on the “ridiculous” argument that NATO represents a military threat to the country.
Since Putin invaded Ukraine in February last year, the idea of the possibility of attack uk and “make it disappear.” A discourse that has not stopped since the beginning of the conflict, a threat that has spread to other countries such as France. In fact, last November, when Russia was going through its worst moment in the war after several resounding defeats and the advance of Ukrainian troops, Russian generals already discussed the use of long-range weapons, although At the moment it seems that they have decided not to use them.
But the Kremlin’s discourse does not change and maintains that the West represents a threat to the country, so the use of tactical strategic nuclear weapons (Russia has about 2,000) emerge as an option to deter further escalation of the fighting.
The report reflects that the countries of the NATO they do not contemplate its use or if they do it is as a last resort. However, in the case of the Kremlin, experts believe that they can resort to tactical nuclear weapons before a limit situation occurs. Nuclear weapons provide a “comfort blanket” for the Kremlin, so it is more likely to use them before the West.
In fact, it reflects four scenarios in which Putin could resort to the use of nuclear weapons:
- For anticipate an attack against Russia
- In the case of let the west use them Against them
- if it occurs a cyber attack against Russian command and control systems
- In response to a situation where Russia feels threatened.
The report has come to light in a situation where the invasion of Ukraine is stalled. After the defeats at the end of the year, the Kremlin was expected to launch an offensive to coincide with the first anniversary of the invasion, but for now Russia has focused on bombing infrastructure to damage the electricity and water supplies from Ukraine.
On the battlefield, it continues to send thousands of reservists and inmates recruited from prisons across the country to form waves of humans that relentlessly attack and undermine the morale of Ukrainian soldiers.
Thus, he forms small groups of soldiers who try to advance on foot to take new positions, but most of them are shot down by Ukrainian machine guns. The report states that the human wave tactic was created by the mercenary group Wagnerresponsible for the ground offensive of the Russian army.
Failing to make significant progress, the Heritage Foundation believes the chances are increasing that Putin will order the use of nuclear or chemical weapons to undermine the morale of Ukrainian forces. “Russia has failed to defeat the Ukrainian army and is now focusing on forcing the capitulation of the civilian population by attacking electricity and water supplies. It is therefore plausible that Russia is not just threatening to use, but actually using, a weapon of mass destruction to attack civil resistance in Ukraine Russia is focused on destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, and doing the same with the nuclear industry that now produces about 60 percent of prewar power. A Russian attack on nuclear power plants to cut off electricity and create an improvised nuclear incident is a real prospect,” say the experts who do not rule out the use chemical weapons in subway stations in the east of the country, which “would be devastating.
Another aspect highlighted by the report is Russia’s intention to make Western countries feel overwhelmed by the massive arrival of refugees. For this reason, they have made an effort to encourage the population to flee and thus create a massive flow of refugees. This flow would be aimed at putting pressure on Hungary, Moldova and Polandborder countries with Turkey, which has been overwhelmed by the arrival of Syrian refugees. In this way, they intend to destabilize an important geostrategic area of Europe and force the EU to change its approach to the conflict.
One of the most dangerous elements, according to the report, is Russian military failure. Thus, it indicates that if the Russian president thinks that he can losing the war would take it as a humiliation, which would exponentially increase the nuclear risk.
Something that could occur due to the titanic resistance of the Ukrainians. “Putin’s concept of great Russia, with Ukraine and Belarus in his sphere of influence, is mortally wounded because Ukrainians want to be free of Russian control. The greater the threat from Moscow, the greater the Ukrainian desire to be free With or without Western support, the Ukrainians will fight. Russia’s Putin’s dream of achieving an anti-Western, quasi-Soviet state, but he exposes himself to a defeat that would be a humiliation. In Putin’s mind, this crisis may have become existential, which, ifAccording to Russian doctrine, it would justify the use of any and all weapons.”the experts add. Putin’s dreams of reincorporating Ukraine into Russia, of breaking up NATO and of Moscow leading an anti-Western global alliance are collapsing around him.”
It is at this point that the importance of “martyr complex” of Putin and his thoughts about “the glory of dying for one’s country” creating a fetishistic idea that links the orthodox christianity Russia and nuclear weapons.
In this way, the Heritage Foundation establishes some recommendations:
- USA and its allies should deter Russia “ensuring that the Kremlin understands that any use will provoke an overwhelming response that would severely degrade Russian forces.”
- Countries must intensify their diplomatic efforts to ensure that Russia’s allies also warn it against the use of nuclear weapons.
- Keep lines of communication with Russia open, even if the Kremlin doesn’t respond: “Russia prefers to threaten the use of nuclear weapons and continue to fight conventionally, but this does not mean that Putin and his generals are bluffing.”
Threatening to use nuclear weapons to divide the West was a Soviet tactic that the Russian president may be using to try to distance countries. But there is a situation in which I would take the step. If Ukrainian forces were to threaten to breach the land corridor linking Crimea to Donbas, “Putin will make one of the most fateful decisions of the century: Use nuclear or chemical weapons. The US must act now to minimize that threat and ensure the protection of the public.” American and its allies,” the report concludes.
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