The Irish ‘lobby’ has historically always had great power in Washington. And in the age of joe good takes on even greater importance. With Irish roots on both sides of his family tree, the American president has always had an interest in the region. Hence his visit next week to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement. After arduous negotiations that involved both Washington and London and Dublin, on April 10, 1998 Catholics and Protestants sealed peace in Northern Ireland with a pact that put an end to a bloody conflict of three decades in which most More than 3,500 people lost their lives, including 52% civilians.
Biden will meet with the Prime Minister on Tuesday Rishi Sunak. But the visit will not finally include a stop at Stormont, seat of the ‘autonomous’ parliament. For a time, visits were even organized for the foreign press to witness how Northern Irish politicians had been able to put aside their differences to deal with issues such as education or health. And yet, now absolute silence reigns. The anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement coincides with one of the most unstable moments in Belfast.
Catholics and Protestants are forced to govern in coalition. But for more than a year there has been no regional Executive due to the tensions caused by the new customs controls that must be carried out after Brexit. London and Brussels have closed a new pact – the Windsor Agreement– which considerably reduces checkups. The new framework also includes a tool that will allow the Belfast Assembly to object to future EU legislation that will need to continue to apply in Northern Ireland in order to protect the single market.
The pact has already been approved by Westminster and the EU. However, it is still not accepted by Protestant unionists in the DUP, who do not want the British province to now be left with a different status from the rest of the UK.
The celebrations for the 25th anniversary of the Peace Agreement are therefore marred. Because to the political paralysis, there is now also the increase in the level of terrorist threat, going from “substantial” to “serious”, the second highest on a scale of five. In March 2022 it had been reduced, for the first time in twelve years. However, the February assassination attempt on agent john caldwell, one of the most prominent figures in the Northern Ireland Police Force, this week forced the intelligence services of MI5 to reconsider the situation. The officer was shot multiple times by two hooded men while off duty coaching a youth soccer team. All under the presence of his son. He is still hospitalized and will suffer sequelae for life. Police warn that dissident Republican groups are planning more attacks to coincide with Biden’s arrival.
The Ireland of 1998 has nothing to do with that of now. Since the signing of the peace, the coexistence between Catholics and Protestants (although with tensions) has been transformed. Like the economyGDP has doubled– thanks to foreign investment, trade, tourism and investment in infrastructure, a new framework that has increased prosperity, life expectancy and has attracted the arrival of new residents.
However, the activity of both the Republican dissident groups and the radical unionist gangs linked to drug trafficking has increased in the midst of the crisis due to the absence of an Executive.
During most of the `Troubles´ (as the bloody conflict is known), the ‘Provisional IRA’ was the largest and most influential republican paramilitary group. But in the 1980s and 1990s, the terrorist group and its political wing, the Sinn Fein, they began to take steps that eventually led to a ceasefire and support for the Good Friday Agreement, which, among other things, states that Northern Ireland will remain part of the United Kingdom until a majority of the electorate votes for a change.
Hence, the fact that Sinn Fein became the most voted formation in the last regional elections of May last year, for the first time in history, was so symbolic.
Members of the ‘Provisional IRA’ who opposed the Peace Agreement formed new groups, such as the ‘Continuity IRA’, the ‘Real IRA’ and later the ‘New IRA’. They remained committed to using violence to try to achieve a united Ireland, something Sinn Féin has condemned for many years. All political forces condemn the actions of the dissidents. For now, Downing Street has given another extension to the Northern Irish parties to form a coalition government in Belfast. The deadlines have been extended until January 18, 2024. If by then the blockade continues, new early elections will be called in a region that has evolved enormously in the last 25 years, but still does not find its full stability.
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