The energy opened Pandora’s box in the European Union. And what is more: it is threatening the unity that the community bloc had maintained during these two and a half months of war in Ukraine. A week ago, the European Comission presented its proposal on the sixth package of sanctions against Russia. Seven days later, it is still not approved and is becoming a real headache in Brussels.
Seven meetings at the level of ambassadors, an express and emergency trip of Ursula von der LeyenPresident of the European Commission, to budapest and a call from Emmanuel MacronPresident of France, were not enough to unlock Hungary’s veto and convince his Prime Minister Victor Orban.
The Hungarian government had been warning him since the beginning of the war. It will not give its green light to energy sanctions that endanger your energy security. He already agreed to impose the coal embargo a month ago. But agreeing to do the same with oil are big words for Budapest. “Accepting these sanctions would be an atomic bomb for our economy”, the Executive of the fidesz.
Hungary is one of the great dependents of Russian crude. Although it is not the Member State that matters most. Finland either Lithuania they get over it But the great Trojan horse of the Magyar country is its difficulty in finding alternative routes, since it does not have natural access to the sea. Therefore, one of the demands of those of Orbán is that the package on the table excludes imports of Russian crude that arrive through gas pipelines. His Foreign Minister argued that the total embargo would mean an increase in between 55% and 60% of the oil price.
This demand puts the community bloc in a bind, since the sixth package – the hardest due to its impact on the Kremlin economy – would be much more decaf and would downplay your answer and somehow also its credibility. Brussels proposed to grant Hungary – and other highly dependent countries such as the Czech Republic or Slovakia – a grace period of up to 2024 to disengage. But it’s still not enough. The Hungarian response is unshakable: it demands that the sanctions only apply to hydrocarbons that arrive by sea.
The implications of Orbán’s ordeal are already being felt on community soil. The EU is getting impatient. He does not want the unit shown to date to blow up, diminishing his image and his ability to act against Putin. Since the beginning of the offensive in Ukraine, Brussels has always welcomed the fact that the Russian president has united them more than ever before. But this could change already with the energy battle. One option could be to make the decision at the level of the remaining Twenty-six, but this would reveal the European division, something that has been wanted to avoid since the beginning of the invasion.
End the weapon of unanimity
The unanimity requirement for any action in foreign policy is one of the great burdens that prevents Europeans from advancing in the global arena. That is why this kidnapping of Hungary around the sixth package revived the debate on putting an end to the need to adopt decisions such as sanctions by absolute consensus. Von der Leyen insisted on ending it recently in the Strasbourg plenary. The idea was already kicking strong during the tenure of his predecessor, Jean-Claude Juncker. And it was one of the great ambitions underlined by Joseph Borrellhead of European diplomacy, when he took office.
Smaller countries are unwilling to part with their veto power
But the change from unanimity to qualified majority is double-edged weapon. To take the step, paradoxically, a unanimous decision is necessary. And the smaller countries are unwilling to part with their veto power. And this is precisely the European magic: that at the Council table, large and small have the same voting power.
Orbán, increasingly isolated
In addition, Orbán’s iron stance places him in a difficult situation within Europe. The Magyar premier is increasingly isolated within the community bloc. Throughout the war he has opposed sending weapons to Ukraine. This position of the European leader most closely aligned with Vladimir Putin faced it with what to date was the most similar country: Poland. Warsaw and Budapest are the two terrible kid within the community bloc for its continuous attacks on the rule of law and fundamental rights. But the war in Ukraine is also altering the balance of intra-European alliances.
What options does Brussels have to persuade Budapest? The portal Politician states that the European Commission could offer Orbán an economic compensation in exchange for your positive vote. This could materialize through the new energy strategy that will see the light of day next week, baptized as REPowerEU. The critical voices make it ugly that Hungary uses this veto as a weapon to obtain internal benefits, at a time, moreover, when its recovery fund is frozen in the Berlaymont for his attacks on the rule of law. Poland and Hungary are, in fact, the only two countries whose post-pandemic plan is retained by the Community Executive.
fissures appear
Tensions between community partners begin to surface. Croatia called the Hungarian ambassador for consultations after some controversial statements by Orbán in which he assured that his country “would have ports if they had not been taken away”, words that were interpreted as a reference to the times when Croatia belonged to the Austro-Hungarian empire .
Nor did the words that Emmanuel Macron pronounced in the European Parliament this week in which he assured that Ukraine will not be a member of the EU go down very well in many member states.decades“and where asked not “humiliate” Russia. In some capitals, especially those in the East, they advocate fast-track entry of kyiv into the community bloc and a hard line with Moscow.
All in all, the EU is entering key territory. The fear of some fall into a “sanctioning fatigue” and that the war stagnates in the East and ends up being perpetuated and forgotten, as it was in 2014. Cracks are beginning to emerge and after opening the thunder box with energy it is difficult to see how the bloc could move forward in possible sanctioning packages that included gas, the great Trojan horse.
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