Armenia and Azerbaijan broke out in military conflicts, and within a few days, they attacked each other and turned into a formal declaration of war. In fact, the relationship between the two countries has to be traced back to the time before the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991. Armenia and Azerbaijan were respectively members of the Soviet Union and Azerbaijan was independent At that time, part of the country was invaded by neighboring Armenia. The reason was that Armenians believed that the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan (referred to as the Naka region) had been the territory of the Armenian nation since ancient times. Therefore, Armenia has the right to take back its own. territory.
However, Azerbaijan believes that the region belongs to its own territory under the system of international conventions. Now this aggressive behavior of the Armenian government has violated the international conventions. For this reason, war broke out between the two countries. In this territorial battle, more than 30,000 people were killed and a million people were left homeless.
Subsequently, the three countries of the United States, Russia and France expressed their intervention in mediation, and Armenia and Azerbaijan stopped the expansion of the war situation. However, the territorial ownership issue was not resolved and the two countries were still at war. Therefore, in 1994, 2006 and this year, the two countries continued to erupt. War, then, looking at the whole story of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, why did the war burn?
Territorial disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been around for a long time, and they seem to be in peace during the Soviet era
The territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan was originally a two-state issue, and the most effective way to resolve territorial disputes has always been war. However, the major powers believe that the outbreak of the war between the two countries will affect the international order and the interests of countries. For example, Armenia has always been Russia. A satellite country of Russia, Russia has set up military bases in Armenia, so on the territorial issue, Russia prefers to support Armenia.
However, Turkey at the southern end of the Black Sea wants to use Azerbaijan to increase its influence in its surroundings, so Turkey firmly stands in Azerbaijan; the territorial dispute between the two countries has evolved from a territorial issue to an international issue under the interference of Turkey and Russia. The dispute intensified.
There has been a famous saying in the world: “Small frictions between countries can become an excuse for the game between big countries.” The Caucasus region has always been the sphere of influence of the Soviet Union. During the Soviet period, under the control of the coalition government, Armenia and Azerbaijan were bound by the alliance, so they did not fight because of territorial issues. Although the two nations were angry, they were in peace.
Naka region is not as influential as Crimea and has not received international attention
However, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the countries of the Caucasus region began to lose the constraints of the Soviet Union, so the region fell into a short period of power vacuum and lost the regional international order. Therefore, the Caucasus countries began to expand greatly during this period. The country’s territory and regional interests are drawn, and the territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan broke out at this stage.
Since the two countries are small powers, the initial armed conflict was not violent, and no one can shake anyone. Moreover, this region does not have the influence of Crimea, nor does it involve the interests of other major powers like the Kosovo region. Therefore, the Naka region has not received more international attention, and the two countries have maintained a stalemate over territorial issues.
The territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan is actually a game of great powers behind it
Until recently, on September 28, armed conflict broke out between the Armenia and Azerbaijan forces in the Naka region. Armenia claimed that it had shot down several Azerbaijani helicopters and dozens of tanks and armored vehicles.
Subsequently, Azerbaijan also issued an announcement: the country controlled seven villages in Naka, and when the two countries declared a state of war, Turkey issued a declaration expressing its support for Azerbaijan’s war against Armenia.
While Russia saw the momentum, it also began to secretly transport arms to Armenia. As the other mediators of the territorial issues between the two countries, the United States and France only issued relevant declarations against military conflicts in this military conflict, but in fact they did not. Any act.
The behavior of the United States is actually well understood. The Caucasus region is not the sphere of influence of the United States, and the United States does not need to wade in the muddy waters. Moreover, the United States’ approach to the Armenia and Azerbaijan issues is to verbally mediate and not actually move, because the more troubles the Caucasus region gets. The more beneficial it is to restrict Russia.
France also holds the same view. Therefore, looking at the conflict between the two countries from the perspective of major powers, there is actually a strategic game behind the three major powers of Turkey, Russia, and the United States . The United States hopes that the situation is chaotic, and Russia hopes that the situation is stable. It is believed that Azerbaijan should fight Armenia to the end.
Reasons for the conflicts between the two countries’ territorial issues
So, what are the reasons for territorial disputes in the Naka region? Let’s first understand the Lower Naka region. The population of the Naka region is mainly composed of Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Among them, Armenians account for more than 80% of the region’s population, while Azerbaijanis account for only a small proportion. Therefore, the people of this region It has a centripetal force for Armenia.
Logically speaking, it is the best choice for the Naka region to belong to Armenia. Although the Naka region belonged to Armenia for a short time during the Soviet period, the powerful Soviet government later adopted a policy of peacemaking and divided the Naka region. Enters Azerbaijan’s administration, but enjoys a high degree of autonomy.
The Crimea issue was resolved due to the disparity in strength between the two countries
Therefore, Azerbaijan logically believes that the Naka region is a fixed territory, and the Azerbaijani government firmly believes that the region is an inseparable piece of land in the country; and the stalemate between the two countries is actually related to the Crimean Peninsula territory of Russia and Ukraine. The problem is somewhat similar. The Russian people in the Crimean Peninsula occupy the majority, while the Ukrainian people account for a small part.
Therefore, Russia used the referendum to snatch Crimea’s living place from Ukraine; however, Russia and Ukraine, which are involved in the Crimea issue, are completely inconsistent in their strength and international influence. It could not compete with Russia at all, so the Crimea issue was quickly resolved.
The size of Armenia and Azerbaijan is greatly influenced by the power behind them
But Armenia and Azerbaijan are not the same. Their strengths are not much different, and the size of their countries is also similar. They are all small regional countries. Even if there is a difference in strength, they can completely affect the situation under the influence of the big power behind them; Therefore, neither of the two countries can eat each other at once, and the Naka territorial issue can only remain deadlocked.
Assuming that the strength of one of the two countries far surpasses each other, then the Naqqa issue is extremely easy to resolve; however, it is a pity that neither country has such a strong military capability. Therefore, the best solution to the Nakka issue is through international arbitration. To resolve.
However, for international arbitration, Azerbaijan obviously does not agree with this approach, because international arbitration methods are mainly determined by the model of popular referendums in the region. Although Azerbaijan has legal powers in the region in international conventions, it is in the hearts of the people. However, Azerbaijan lost to Armenia. Therefore, Azerbaijan is firmly opposed to the settlement of territorial issues through negotiation.
Azerbaijan opposes referendum led by the United Nations
In 1988, under the leadership of the United Nations, the people of the Naka region held a referendum, but the result of the referendum was that nearly 100% of the people hoped that the Naka region would be owned by the Armenian state; for this result, the Azerbaijani authorities They refused firmly. They understood that if the question of belonging was decided by international means, then it was clear that Armenia had the upper hand.
As a result, Azerbaijan bypassed international arbitration and directly used the means of war to solve the Naqqa issue. During 1994, Azerbaijan seized nearly 80% of Nakka’s territory by force, while the actual control area of Armenia shrank substantially. In addition, in order to win the war, Azerbaijan frequently imported a large amount of weapons and equipment from Turkey and Asian countries. Their government also made it clear: “If the Naqqa issue is not resolved one day, then Azerbaijan will fight Armenia to the end .” Based on this, the territorial dispute between the two countries has not been truly resolved.
The conflicts arising from the territorial issue cannot be explained clearly in one sentence. From a logical point of view, the territory of Naka should belong to the inherent land of Azerbaijan. From a logical point of view, the residents of the territory of Naka support the return to Armenia. , Naka should also be given to Armenia.
In fact, after the first war and conflict between the two countries broke out, they already had the vision to solve the Naqqa issue, but the intervention and instigation of external forces directly led to the renewed war between the two countries. Therefore, to resolve the Nakka issue, The problem of external interference should be resolved first. If external forces do not withdraw from the dispute between the two countries, the Naqqa issue will never be resolved.
Territorial disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the recent war that broke out is still unable to solve the problem; not only Armenia and Azerbaijan are facing such a dilemma, the territorial disputes of many countries in the world have not been resolved after decades; The problem is actually the same as Crimea, but the two countries are small countries, and no one can completely conquer each other. Therefore, the dominant factor in the sovereignty of the Naka region is the big country behind it.
Regarding the issue of sovereignty in the Naka region, Armenia and Azerbaijan have their own opinions. One is based on historical origins, ethnicity and religion, the other is based on international conventions and the maintenance of the status quo, coupled with malicious interference by some major international powers. This has caused the territorial problems of the two countries to become more and more serious.
Can the Naka region become Crimea and how to resolve territorial disputes? We will wait and see that there is no absolute advantage in the military comparison between the two countries under foreign intervention. Therefore, it is difficult for the Naka region to become Russia’s Crimea. Assuming that there is no intervention of a third-party power between the two countries, let the two countries resolve the Naqqa issue by themselves, then perhaps the two countries can resolve the territorial dispute early.